Mutahi Ngunyi Predicts Ruto-Gachagua Handshake Ahead of 2027 Elections
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi has made a bold prediction regarding the political dynamics likely to shape Kenya’s 2027 General Election. In a tweet posted on Sunday, May 4, the outspoken commentator stated with confidence that Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua—popularly known as “Riggy G”—will reconcile with President William Ruto before the country heads back to the polls.
According to Ngunyi, the current tension between the two leaders is not permanent and will be resolved well before the next election. He believes Gachagua’s return to Ruto’s inner circle is inevitable and will play a central role in delivering a second term for the president.
“GEMA votes will be delivered by Gachagua. And Riggy G will reconcile with Ruto by 2027. End of discussion!” Ngunyi wrote, referring to the powerful voting bloc comprising the Gikuyu, Embu, and Meru communities.
His remarks underscore a growing conversation within political circles about the perceived rift between the president and his deputy. Since the 2022 General Election, there have been signs of strain in the relationship between Ruto and Gachagua, with both leaders at times pursuing parallel political interests, particularly in the Mt. Kenya region.
Despite public appearances that suggest a united front, political insiders have hinted at behind-the-scenes disagreements, ranging from issues of regional representation to economic priorities. These tensions have fueled speculation that Gachagua may chart his own political path ahead of 2027.
However, Ngunyi is unconvinced by such speculation. He argues that the political realities of the Mt. Kenya region—and the strategic importance of the GEMA vote—will compel Gachagua to reconcile with Ruto. According to the analyst, both leaders stand to benefit from restoring their alliance, especially given the centrality of Mt. Kenya in determining presidential outcomes.
“The Mt. Kenya vote remains a cornerstone of any winning presidential campaign,” Ngunyi has previously noted in his analyses. “Anyone who wants to win must have the region firmly behind them. Gachagua knows this. Ruto knows this. The handshake is not a matter of if—but when.”
The analyst’s confidence in a political reunion between the president and his deputy also appears to rest on the understanding that their split would only serve to weaken both politically. Ngunyi believes that neither side can afford to go into the 2027 election divided, especially when facing potential opposition alliances.
On the question of opposition, Ngunyi has been equally dismissive of emerging contenders. He notably downplayed the potential candidacy of former Interior Cabinet Secretary Dr. Fred Matiang’i, describing him as politically inexperienced and overhyped. He argued that even with the support of former President Uhuru Kenyatta, Matiang’i would struggle to make significant inroads.
“Matiang’i is an overrated greenhorn. Working with Uhuru, they could not make Raila President. How will a deadwood like Uhuru make Matiang’i President?” Ngunyi questioned, pointing to Uhuru’s failed attempt to deliver Mt. Kenya votes to ODM leader Raila Odinga in 2022.
In Ngunyi’s view, Uhuru Kenyatta’s influence in the region has waned significantly. The former president’s inability to sway the vote in favor of Raila Odinga, despite a robust campaign and government machinery, reflects his diminished political capital in central Kenya. This, Ngunyi argues, further weakens the prospects of any candidate relying on Uhuru’s support in 2027.
It is against this backdrop that the analyst projects a renewed partnership between Ruto and Gachagua as the most logical and politically viable outcome. Such a reunion, he believes, would re-energize the Kenya Kwanza coalition and consolidate its grip on power.
Moreover, Ngunyi’s assertion aligns with the historical trend in Kenyan politics where pragmatism often overrides personal differences. Reconciliations between political rivals—often referred to as “handshakes”—have become common, driven by the need to build winning coalitions.
For instance, in 2018, President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga shocked the nation with their now-famous handshake that redefined Kenya’s political landscape. In Ngunyi’s eyes, a similar move between Ruto and Gachagua is not only likely but necessary to stabilize their political base and prepare for re-election.
Observers note that the deputy president remains a key political figure in Mt. Kenya and enjoys substantial grassroots support. Any attempt to sideline him could fracture the Kenya Kwanza vote and open the door for opposition players. Reconciliation, therefore, may be less about personal friendship and more about electoral arithmetic.
Looking ahead, Ngunyi’s prediction serves as a reminder of the fluid nature of Kenya’s political alliances. With two years to go until the next election, much remains uncertain. However, if his forecast proves accurate, the Ruto-Gachagua handshake could be one of the defining moments leading up to 2027.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, the strategic calculations of leaders within the Kenya Kwanza alliance will undoubtedly shape the outcome of the next general election. Whether driven by loyalty, necessity, or mutual benefit, the coming months will reveal whether Ngunyi’s prediction of reconciliation holds true.
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Mutahi Ngunyi Predicts Ruto-Gachagua Handshake Ahead of 2027 Elections
