Fuel Prices in Kenya Likely to Rise as Global Crude Hits $67 Per Barrel
Fuel prices in Kenya could be headed for another increase after global crude oil prices surged to $67 (approximately Ksh 8,643) per barrel — the highest level recorded since August 2025.
The spike in global oil prices is already raising concern among motorists and businesses, especially with the upcoming review by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) just days away.
Reports released on Tuesday, February 24, indicate that the rise in crude oil prices has been fueled by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, one of the world’s largest exporters of crude oil. Before the spike, a barrel of crude oil was trading at around $60 (approximately Ksh 7,700).
Global Tensions Driving Oil Market Volatility
Iran remains a critical player in global oil supply chains. Any geopolitical tension involving the Middle East often rattles energy markets, pushing prices upward due to fears of supply disruptions.
The jump from $60 to $67 per barrel within a short period signals renewed volatility in international markets — a trend that rarely spares oil-importing countries like Kenya.
How EPRA Determines Fuel Prices in Kenya
Fuel prices in Kenya are reviewed monthly by EPRA. The regulator considers several factors, including global crude oil prices, the exchange rate between the Kenyan shilling and the U.S. dollar, and overall importation costs.
As a net importer of refined petroleum products, Kenya is highly exposed to shifts in global oil markets. When crude prices rise internationally, landing costs increase, and these costs are often passed on to consumers during the next pricing cycle.
The timing of the spike is significant. The surge comes just days before EPRA announces the new fuel rates for the February-March cycle.
Recent Relief Could Be Short-Lived
In its most recent review announced on February 14, EPRA offered motorists temporary relief.
Super Petrol dropped by Ksh4.24, Diesel by Ksh3.93, and Kerosene by Ksh1.00.
Currently, Petrol retails at Ksh178.28, Diesel at Ksh166.54, and Kerosene at Ksh152.78.
The reduction was largely attributed to a decrease in the average cost of imported refined oil during the previous pricing window. However, the latest international price movements threaten to reverse those gains.
Exchange Rate Adds Another Layer of Pressure
Beyond crude oil prices, the performance of the Kenyan shilling plays a crucial role in determining pump prices.
Since fuel imports are paid in U.S. dollars, any weakening of the shilling amplifies the cost burden. Even if global prices stabilize, a weaker currency can still push local pump prices upward.
If crude prices remain elevated throughout the pricing window, motorists should brace for a possible upward adjustment in the coming review.
What a Potential Fuel Price Hike Means
An increase in fuel prices often triggers a ripple effect across the economy. Transport costs rise, food prices adjust upward, and businesses face higher operating expenses.
With inflation pressures already weighing on households, another fuel hike could intensify the cost-of-living burden for many Kenyans.
For now, all eyes remain on EPRA’s upcoming announcement. The direction of fuel prices in Kenya will largely depend on whether global crude prices sustain their upward trend in the coming days.
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Fuel Prices in Kenya Likely to Rise as Global Crude Hits $67 Per Barrel
